When can the restrictions be lifted in Hungary?

As Portfolio concludes, the proportion of those who have already received their first coronavirus vaccination and those enjoying natural protection may not exceed 16-18% according to early government decisions on epidemiological restrictions in early March and 32-41% according to new government decisions in early April. The huge difference is a good indication of the great uncertainty. Still, it also shows that the vaccination rate may be relatively high by then. One of their main conclusions is that instead of the government, the Hungarian people will actually decide when restrictions can be lifted, mainly by their approach to vaccines, including oriental vaccines. If only a relatively small number of people run the risk of taking the Russian and Chinese products, the vaccination rate would not be high enough to lift most restriction safely.

According to Sunday data, more than 286 thousand people in Hungary have already received their first coronavirus vaccination, and more than 105 thousand have already passed the second stab. After the first two phases of the vaccination plan (health care workers and those involved in nursing homes, residential social institutions), the elders were vaccinated at hospital vaccination points and GPs from last Thursday to Sunday, writes Portfolio.

The four-day plan was almost successful, with 39,109 out of 40,000 people receiving their first vaccination (nearly 15,000 people every Friday and Saturday). Still, the 7-day moving average of the first daily vaccination was again below 10,000. According to the full vaccination, plan leaked the other day, if there is enough vaccine, around half a million people a day could be vaccinated at home using the peak capacity.

There are several types of vaccines available in Hungary.

After the preparation of Pfizer/BioNtech and Moderna, a consignment of AstraZeneca vaccine for more than 20 thousand people arrived last Saturday. Even the National Public Health Center issued a license to vaccinate with the Russian Sputnik V vaccine, of which 20,000 doses came last Tuesday, so they will start vaccinating with these already this week. Daily vaccination numbers are therefore expected to rise sharply in the coming weeks.

The 286 thousand people who already received the first vaccination in Hungary means a 2.9% vaccination rate,

which is one of the lowest among the countries in the region. For those who also received a second vaccination, the rate is around 1 per cent. This number means that 3% of the Hungarian society is hopefully highly protected against the coronavirus (it can no longer cause severe illness or complications in their case), but let us not forget that there may be many people who may have gotten through the infection in recent months. They are naturally protected and, as PM Viktor Orbán pointed out in a radio show on Friday, they have to be added to the statistics of immunity. This number is already 371 thousand, 3.7 per cent of society). That means,

At least 6.7% of the Hungarian society may be already protected.

According to the international journals, at least 5-10 times more people have been confirmed to actually pass the disease, but unsure information is not used for planning the country’s reopening. The question remains when will there be enough vaccines and vaccinated people to make concessions without the risk of another outbreak. There is currently a restriction in effect until March 1. It is not known whether a gradual dissolution can be expected or complete dissolution.

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Based on the communication of manufacturers and the government, Portfolio estimates that there will be enough vaccines for about 1.5 million people in Hungary by early March and about 3.5 million by early April. The critical level of 6 million (the minimum level for the onset of “flock immunity”) is expected to be reached by the end of April.

At the beginning of March, the defence rate may get to 10% in the most pessimistic case, and 20% accordingly to an optimistic view. By the beginning of April, this would be 20% and 41%.

Still, the assumption that the incoming full vaccine supply will be administered to humans immediately (more precisely, the first dose) can be quite different from reality, mainly due to a more cautious public attitude towards Russian and Chinese vaccines and anomalies in the domestic authorisation. 

Source: Portfolio